ABSTRACT
In making a choice of solar Photovoltaic or diesel generator system as an alternative for power generation, life cycle costs (LCC) analysis are considered to be potentially important to such a decision. It incorporates all costs arising from owning, operating, maintaining and ultimately disposing of a project. In this study, a software computer program is developed to determine life cycle cost of solar Photovoltaic and diesel generator systems in Nigeria. The software is developed through an approach involving load determination, energy resources determination, system sizing and a typical residential building. Depending on the user’s needs, selected location, material and criteria, the result of the software will show cost difference between solar Photovoltaic and diesel generator power systems as well as cost variation in different designers’ specifications for either of the systems. This study adopts a process of requirements engineering, (RE), to complement object oriented (OO) modeling using the Unified Modeling Language, (UML). The RE process generates structured layers of textual requirements at each level of development and is supported by the UML. It incorporates use case diagram and activity diagrams as the unified modeling language tool. The Key methodology adopted for providing a structured approach to the UML is evolutionary prototyping which focuses on vertical dimension approach. Using the vertical dimension in the evolutionary prototyping, the study, presents a logical detail of the data processing function of the system. All the coding used to develop the software is done in python programming language. The code developed in this study is tested by comparing cost of Solar PV and diesel generator, using specific load description of a household, located in Amawbia, Awka of Anambra state. Results of the test show that solar PV system is cost effective compared to diesel generator over a period of 30 years.Though the capital cost for the PV system is high (42.276% of total LCC) as compared to the capital cost of the diesel generator (0.88% of LCC), the cost of diesel and maintenance of the generator over the system study life is very high (75% of the total LCC cost and 19.08% of LCC respectively) compared to its solar PV counterpart (zero cost of energy and 11.576% of LCC respectively).
1.1 Background of the Study
CHAPTER ONE INTRODUCTION
An adequate and reliable electricity supply system is essential for any developing country, [1]. In Nigeria, the electricity situation can best be described as epileptic. This epileptic power situation affects the manufacturing, service and residential sectors of the economy which in turn affects the country’s economic growth, [2]. At present about twenty million households out of about one hundred and fifty million inhabitants lack access to grid electricity and for those who have access to grid electricity, the supply is very poor, [3].
The erratic power supply and frequent outages in the country’s electric power system has compelled a large percentage of the populace to rely on solar energy and diesel power generators as alternative means of power generation.
Solar energy is energy from the sun. The solar energy conversion into electricity takes place in a semiconductor device, called a solar cell. A solar cell is a unit that delivers only a certain amount of electrical power. In order to use solar electricity for practical devices which requires a particular voltage or current for their operation, a number of solar cells have to be connected together to form a solar panel also called a PV module. For large-scale generation of solar electricity the solar panels are connected together into a solar array, [4].
Based on semiconductor technology, solar cells operate on the principle that electricity will flow between two semiconductors when they are put into contact with each other and exposed to light (photons). This phenomenon, known as the photovoltaic effect, was first discovered by Edmund Becquerel in 1839. Actual development of PV technology began in the 1950s and gained greater impetus through the NASA space program during the 1960s. Research continues today at national laboratories and within private industry, focusing on increasing conversion efficiencies and mass production strategies to further lower the cost of producing PV modules, [5]. Solarphotovoltaic systems are widely known for their ability to generate electric power for homes, water pumping, village electrification, rural clinic and schools power supply, vaccine refrigeration, traffic lighting and lighting of road signs and commercial buildings, through the absorption of energy from the sun’s ray,[6].
The simplicity of design and operation of diesel generators has sustained its usage as a reliable means of generating electricity in remote and grid isolated areas of Nigeria. Availability of fuel makes it an economic option.
However, the advocacy for the adoption of solar photovoltaic systems as an alternative source of electricity generation is on the increase in Nigeria, due to its reliable, affordable and clean energy source. Solar energy is widely available throughout the world and can contribute to reduced dependence on energy imports, as it entails no fuel price risk or constraints; it also improves security of supply. Solar power enhances energy diversity and hedges against price volatility of fossil fuels, thus stabilizing costs of electricity generation in the long term.
There exists a Conflict of choice between these two alternatives of electricity generation. This conflict is instigated by cost of acquisition and efficiency of the system.
1.2 Statement of Problem
Most often, procurement costs are widely used as the primary (and sometimes only) criteria for the choice of alternative power generation systems based on the period it takes to recoup the investment (simple payback period), [7]. For instance, a diesel generator of low acquisition cost with high operation cost may be considered cost effective as compared to a photovoltaic system whose cost of acquisition may be high with a low operation cost over same period. This criteria result to poor financial decision.
To ensure cost effectiveness, Life cycle cost (LCC) analysis is required to demonstrate the relationship between operational savings and investment cost of systems with different economic lives. Simple payback criteria is a relative measure for only one case as it is frequently used for small capital expenditures which are so clearly economical that the time and expense of a full LCC analysis is not worthwhile, [7].
The complexity and time consuming nature of the mathematics involved in life cycle cost analysis stands as a deterrent to an average Nigerian in making a choice of a cost effective alternative power generation system. This dissertation develops software that analyzes the life cycle cost of solar PV and diesel generator systems, with input variables in form of power rating of the systems’ load requirement, resources, initial cost of system components, life cycle term.
1.3 Objectives of the Study
The main objective of the study is to develop life cycle cost analysis software for a Solar PV and diesel powered generator systems.
The study more specifically seeks to,
1. Assess the degree of inadequacy in the Nigeria power sector over the years.
2. Examine solar PV and diesel generators as alternatives for electricity generation in
Nigeria.
3. Use standard procedures to ascertain the economic viability of a PV and diesel powered generator system.
4. Demonstrate for educational purpose, a practical approach to implement prototyping software development model.
1.4 Significance of the Study
The study promises to make an important contribution in the academic search for developing software for life cycle cost analysis of energy systems. It will enable individuals, government and organizations to make reasonable choice selection on cost effective and efficient alternatives of generating electricity. The developed software will create an easy platform for those who will find life cycle cost calculations complex and tedious. As a means of increasing awareness of solar PV technology for electricity generation, this study could not have come at a better time since presently, the growth of Solar PV technology is hindered by perceived high cost of system components. It will lead to change of mindset that a particular system is cost effective than the other, considering only the acquisition cost.
1.5 Scope of the Study
The developed software is limited to Nigeria, for life cycle cost analysis of stand-alone solar
Photovoltaic and diesel generator systems.
1.6 Organization of the dissertation
This dissertation is organized into five chapters. Chapter one is the introductory chapter. This highlights the reasons behind this research work, ranging from statement of problem, objectives, significance, and scope. In chapter two, efforts were made to review research works that are related to the subject matter of this research. This enabled the researcher to come up with gaps in literature which this work fills. Chapter three covers the design methodology adopted for this
study, which is one of the most important parts of software development. Chapter four shows the software implementation based on the research methodology adopted and also show test results of the implemented software. Chapter five combines summary of the work, conclusion and recommendation. All authors whose works were consulted in the course of this research are acknowledged in the reference. The python source code of the software and its interactions on the command line interface are presented in Appendix I and II respectively.
This material content is developed to serve as a GUIDE for students to conduct academic research
DEVELOPMENT OF SOFTWARE FOR LIFE CYCLE COST ANALYSIS OF SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC AND DIESEL GENERATOR SYSTEMS IN NIGERIA
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