UNIVERSITY MATRICULATION ENTRANCE EXAMINATION SCORES IN CHEMISTRY AS PREDICTORS OF ACHIEVEMENT IN CHEMISTRY- BASED COURSES IN PUBLIC UNIVERSITIES IN ENUGU STATE

ABSTRACT

The controversy over the lapses noticed  in  the conduct of examinations  and  the process of admission   of   candidates   into   Nigerian   Universities   through   University   Matriculation Examination  (UME) necessitated the call for the introduction of post-UME (PUME). Certain problems were found to be associated with these processes such as content coverage, variation in question   type   and  structure,  admission   through   quota  system,  peculiarities   of  different Universities. The evident uncertainty in the validity and uniformity of admission criteria called for  empirical   investigation   of  the  predictive   validities  of  UME,  PUME  and  combined UME/PUME chemistry scores used for admission into chemistry-based programmes in public Universities. The study was guided by four research questions and four hypotheses. The design of the study was correlational. Multistage sampling technique, were used to select a total of 1370 students that sat for UME and PUME and admitted into the public universities in Enugu State, in

10, departments from 20, chemistry-based faculties, used for the study. Records on performances of students in the examination were obtained from departmental admission lists and the students’ records of their various universities. The stepwise multiple regression technique was used for the data analysis. The correlation coefficients were tested for significance using F-test at 0.05% level of significance. The study revealed among others that: In federal University, UME score did not predict students’ first year result in all the courses in public Universities except in Industrial chemistry (R2=0.14) in Federal University, where weak relationship was recorded. PUME chemistry scores predicted students’ first year scores in all the departments studied in Federal University: Agricultural Economics (R2= 0.17); Biochemistry (R2=0.02); Electrical/Electronics (R2=0.06); Industrial Chemistry (R2=0.39); Medicine (R2=0.06). In State University, PUME chemistry scores predicted students’ first year scores in Electrical Electronics (R2=0.07) but did not predict students’ scores  in Agricultural  Economics,  (R2=0.02)  Industrial  Chemistry (R2=

0.01), Biochemistry (R2=0.01) and Medicine (R2=0.02). The average scores of both UME/PUME chemistry predicted students first year scores in all the courses in Federal University: Ag/Econs (R2=0.07); Bio/Chem ( R2=0.06); E/E (R2=0.05); Ind/Chem (R2=0.36); Med (R2=0.78), but in

State University, the average scores of UME/ post-UME chemistry predicted students’ first year scores in Electrical Electronics only (R2=0.04).There were no relationships between students’ average scores of UME/PUME and their first year result in Agricultural Economics (R2= 0.01), Industrial  chemistry  (R2=0.01),  Biochemistry  (R2=0.04)  and  Medicine  (R2=0.01).  Students’ UME chemistry scores predicted their PUME chemistry scores in Biochemistry (R2=0.02) and Industrial chemistry (R2=0.27) in Federal University but did not predict the students’ PUME chemistry scores in Agricultural Economics (R2=0.01), Electrical Electronics (R2=0.01) and Medicine (R2=0.01). In State University, UME chemistry scores only predicted post-UME chemistry scores in Biochemistry  (R2=0.06) and Electrical Electronics  (R2=0.11) but did not predict  their  post-UME  scores  in  Agricultural  Economics  (R2=0.02)  Industrial  chemistry (R2=0.01) and Medicine (R2=0.04). Based on the findings, the educational implications were

highlighted. Appropriate recommendations were made, among which were, that all the problems associated with the process of UME have to be urgently addressed by JAMB and other stake holders in order to improve the quality and credibility of UME. A follow up policy should be made on post-UME and appropriate committee set up to look into the activities of PUME in public  Universities.  Chemistry  questions  should  be  standardized   and  unified  within  the chemistry-based faculties and across the public Universities.

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CHAPTER ONE

INTRODUCTION

Background of the Study

Higher education in Nigeria began effectively in 1948 with the establishment of University College  at  Ibadan,  as  a  campus of University  of London.  Thereafter,  five  others were established, between 1948 and 1974, owing to the  recommendation of Ashby Commission set up to study the needs for university education in Nigeria [Sojo, Adeniran and Samaila, (1992)]. These are regarded as first generation Universities, which include: University of Nigeria Nsukka, the first indigenous and autonomous (1960), followed by the Universities of Ife, now Obafemi Awolowo, Lagos, Zaria, an autonomous University at Ibadan all in (1962) and Benin (1970).The second generation universities were established between 1970 and

1976, due to the increasing population of qualified students, and the need for the scientific and technological development. These are Universities of Calabar, Jos, Maiduguri, Kano, Illorin,  Sokoto  and  Portharcourt.  Between 1979  and1984, eight  state  and  seven  federal universities of technology known as third generation universities emerged out of the need to address the country’s special needs of technological and agricultural demands [Emevon, (1989), Sojo et al, (1992) and Huntar, (2003)]. The first State University of Technology to be established  was  Enugu State University of Science  and Technology formerly known as Anambra State University of Science and Technology in 1979. Other State and privately owned universities were also established following the pressures from qualified students from each state, who could not get admission to any of the federal universities and also, the need to encourage private participations in the university education. Following from the ongoing, it has been observed that, University of Nigeria, Nsukka and Enugu State University of Science and Technology were the first and the oldest Federal University and State University of Technology to be established in Nigeria. They are the only two public universities located in Enugu State, the former headquarter of the then Eastern region, now South-East geopolitical zone.

Prior to the establishment of JAMB in 1978, each of these first generation universities on inception, was responsible for the conduct of its own entrance examination and admitted its candidates (Busayo, 2010), exclusively on merit level (Emevon, 1989) and sometimes on

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concessionary basis (Okafor, 1971) or in accordance with laid down criteria which varied among Universities (Ofoegbu and Ojogwu, 2006). For instance, minimum qualification for the universities of Ahmadu Bello, Ibadan, Ife, and Lagos within that period include: possession of five credits including English at general certificates of Education, two of which must be at advanced level or possession of four credits, three of which are at advanced level. But at Ibadan, Lagos, and Ahmadu Bello universities, English language was given special consideration to science students. In addition, these four universities have concessionary entry for students fresh from school, who hold G.C.E ordinary level in five subjects including English and Mathematics.

These candidates sit for an examination and if successful, undergo one year preliminary course (at Ahmadu Bello, two years) before being admitted to run the degree courses. This concession extends especially  to  science  students.  At  Ibadan,  it  extends  to  Arts and  at Ahmadu  Bello,  there  is  also  a  preliminary  course  in  Arabic  and  Islamic  studies.  The University of Nigeria, Nsukka, differs from the others in having a minimum entry qualification of credits in six subjects at G.C.E. ordinary level or five credits in the West African School Certificate including English and Mathematics or an approved science subject at one sitting. University entrance examination, is an examination that educational institutions worldwide  in  selecting  students  for  admission.  The  entrance  examinations used  for  the admission of candidates into Nigerian Universities are, the University Matriculation Examination (UME) and post-University Matriculation Examination (PUME), being conducted by Joint Admission and Matriculation Board (JAMB) and different Universities. The average of both UME and PUME had been in use since 2005 for the admission of candidates, apart from the year 2008, when the post-UME was used alone for the admission.

It should be noted that western education is at different level of development in the different component units of the federation including the universities. In this regard, other proprietors of tertiary institution had different guidelines for admission into their various tertiary institutions, due to differences in university ownerships by state, federal and private. Since then, the growth of students has increased marginally from 30,000 in 1978 to well above one million in 2013 (Esien and Lawal, 2007). The number of universities in Nigeria has increased tremendously, starting  from 1,  university in 1960 to  113  in 2013.This  is  distributed as follows: 36, federal, 36, state and 41, private universities as indicated by (NUC, 2010) and

(Adeoye, 2011). In other words, these universities are differently owned and sponsored by federal government, state government and private individuals or agency each with different ideology. The differences in ownership of the universities pose some difficulties in maintenance of uniform standard and, quality control across these universities and to meet up with  the  acceptable  international  standard  across  the  globe.  In  addition,  (Onyekakeyah,

2012),  noted that  there  is  nowhere  in the  world  where  all  the  universities  and  tertiary institutions have the same standard.

However, this system of decentralization of admission in each university after sometimes, revealed some limitations as evident in wastage of resources, in the process of administering the entrance examinations, on the part of the candidates and their sponsors (Nwokike, 2003). Then,  a  candidate  seeking  a  university admission had  to  collect  as  many  forms as  his financial  capacity  could  afford.  This  approach  resulted  in  multiple  applications  and admissions by some candidates and thus leading to blockage of admission chances of other candidates (Ajaja, 2010). This is because the individual universities based their admission processes on essentially their peculiar guidelines and standards, a situation that naturally led to multiple applications by candidates seeking admission into various universities. (Esien and Lawal, 2007).This system, in addition, put tremendous strain on the applicants and their sponsors, particularly those who applied to two or more institutions only to find themselves rejected in all at the end. The general untidiness in the uncoordinated system of admission, into universities together with the attendant problems as manifest in loss of admission, by the increased  number  of candidates seeking  admission  into  the  universities,  were  sufficient causes for concern to the committee of Vice Chancellors and other stakeholders in Nigerian Education System. This consequently necessitated the then federal military government’s decision  in  1976  to  set  up  a  national  committee  on  university  entrance  under  the chairmanship  of  Mr.  M.  S.  Angulu.  (Busayo,  2010).  This  committee  was  specifically requested to consider the possibility of setting up a joint board. The committee recommended the setting up of two bodies, the central admissions board and the joint matriculation board. The federal military government, based on that, accepted to set up the joint admission and matriculation board (JAMB) in April 1977. (Nwokike, 2003). This was the federal government’s solution to the problems of: unequal opportunities and standard (NUC, 1988); multiple offers of admission to single candidate (Emevon, 1989) and the need to use a fair method of selection to ensure equitable distribution of available spaces in tertiary institutions (Asien and Lawal, 2007). Joint Admission and Matriculation Board (JAMB) is one of the

external examination bodies whose responsibility it is to administer examinations (UME) in

Nigeria for the purpose of selection of qualified candidates into Nigerian universities.

The legal instrument establishing the board was promulgated by the (Decree no 2 of 1978 of the Federal Military Government on 13th February 1978 (Supplement to Official Gazette no

8). This was amended by decree 33 of 1988, which extended its jurisdiction and powers to conduct qualifying examinations into Nigerian polytechnics and colleges of education. This was subsequently amended by decree no 4 of 1999, which officially removed discretionary measures from the parameters for admissions [Ofoegbu and Ojogwu, (2006)].The summary of the major functions and activities of JAMB include: conducting matriculation examination into universities, polytechnics/colleges of technology and colleges of education, marking and grading  of  JAMB  examinations;  determining   admission  requirements,   selection  and placement of candidates into the universities. The JAMB system of admission into higher institutions particularly the first generation universities (Ibadan, Ife, Lagos, Zaria, Nsukka, and  Benin)  is  classified  according  to  (Ofoegbu  and  Ojogwu,  2006)  into  three  broad categories:

i.          Merit list: This includes the potential students who sat for and met the stipulated cut- off mark for a particular course of study. It accounts for 45% of the candidates admitted for each course.

ii.        The catchment area (locality) takes up 35% of the overall admission into each course.

This takes care of candidates living in the area where the university is located with some affiliated areas.  The catchment  area  is determined every year  by the Joint Admission and Matriculation Board.

iii.       Educationally disadvantaged states. JAMB admits 20% of the potential students from such states which are considered to be retarded in educational development into the university. The institution assigns lower cut off mark to this category of candidates so as to be given the opportunity to close the gap.

In addition to that, (Abdulrahman, 1992) included another criterion as the discretion of the institution  which  accounts  for  10%  of the  admission  into  each  course.  For  instance,  a candidate from Enugu can only go into the University of Lagos on the basis of merit or discretion of the institution, because Enugu is not part of the catchment area of the University of Lagos.  It  is  also  possible to  see  a  candidate  with a  lower  mark  from educationally

disadvantaged  state  admitted  during  supplementary  admission  because  he  is  the  only candidate qualified or available for that particular course from the state. The merit quota according to this distribution accounts for 40%; locality of the institution accounts for 30%; educational less development state accounts for 20% and discretion of the institution 10%. (The Nigerian Economist, 1993) in supporting this, reported that JAMB is guided by the need to ensure balanced geographical representation and federal character. This implies that merit is not the only criterion for securing a place through JAMB, the requirement to meet the quotas from all geopolitical areas was also a factor. This is responsible for the different cut off points the examination body employs to determine placement of different candidates in the federation, depending on their states of origin.

According to (JAMB, 2010), for a candidate to be regarded as being successful in admission into the institutions, such candidate must have met up with the age and entry requirements for that particular course in a particular university. The approved general age requirement for entry into the Nigerian University is a minimum of 16 years. The general entry requirement for admission into first degree course for the university matriculation candidate includes: writing of University Matriculation Examinations; possession of five credits in Secondary School Certificate Examination (SSCE)/General Certificate Examination (GCE) ordinary or advanced level/National Business and Technical Examination Board (NABTEB) passes in grade six and above, obtained at not more than two sittings in relevant studies and institution. The five credits should include English in case of those applying for arts, business administration, education (arts), law, medical sciences and social science courses. Candidate applying for Agriculture, Education (science or social science), Engineering, Medical Sciences, Social Sciences and other science-based courses, where a credit in English is not mandatory, a pass is required. (JAMB Brochure, 2010) The same brochure provides that, there are identified prerequisite entry requirements for some courses and, this at times varies according to universities. For instance, chemistry being one of the core science subjects is necessary in some courses in the following faculties in most universities: Agriculture; Engineering; Biological sciences; Environmental sciences; Medical/Pharmaceutical/Health sciences and Physical sciences.

The  implications of this  are  as  follows: one  of the  objectives of chemistry curriculum according to new national policy on education is to show its link with industry, everyday life,

benefit and hazards. Chemistry knowledge and skills are necessary for successful engagement in those programmes. It is quite unique in its involvement in several aspects of modern life (Ikoku,  1973).  Chemistry  is  therefore  required  as  one  of  the  ordinary  level  entry requirements, UME and Post-UME subjects to be taken and passed for admission into those chemistry based courses. Chemistry-based courses as used in this work include, those courses in which chemistry is compulsorily required at ordinary level requirement, UME and post- UME subjects. Thus performance in chemistry in UME, Post-UME and the average performance of both UME and Post-UME is assumed to be positively predicting the candidates’ performance in chemistry or the related courses in Public universities.

Since the inauguration of JAMB in April 1977, to  replace the concessionary admission exercises into Nigeria universities, it had continued to grow in strength and popularity and also taken series of measures to address the problems of admission in Nigeria before the centralized  system. (Esien and  Lawal,  2007).This notwithstanding, many  academics  had registered their reservations [Eghagha, (2005); Yola, (2006) and Awosiyan, (2007)]. They reasoned that such central examination and admission of that nature might lower admission standard. This was confirmed by the poor performance of students in different examinations such as West African examinations council and also in the universities [Obe, (2005); Onyekakeyah, (2009) and Otti, (2011)]. Yet, there was an order for universities to lower their cut-off points, below the recommended two hundred (200) points by JAMB (Taiwo, 1995). Worse still by decree 33 of 1989, JAMB coverage was expanded to include both federal and state polytechnic, colleges of education and technology. Many Nigerians [Ighadoro, (2002); Oyekanmi, (2005) and Yola, (2006)], then wondered aloud how JAMB could cope with such tedious assignments. In their views, JAMB had been so much criticized over its non- performance such that the federal government had set up a panel to probe its activities. This was sequel to the fact that the vice chancellors had earlier petitioned the federal ministry of education reporting that JAMB was no longer relevant and should be scrapped, while admission exercise should be conducted by individual universities [Education Mail, (2000); Onyekakeya, (2012)]. In support of that, one of the recent recommendations of the Steven Oronsaye Presidential Committee on Rationalization and Restructuring of Federal Government Parastatals, was that tertiary institutions should conduct its Examinations and admit its candidates and JAMB be reduced to a supervisory body that serves as both clearing house and administrative body to ensure that there is no multiple offers and entries (Mohammed, 2013)

Furthermore, leakages, cancellations and malpractices in UME were prominent. For instance, the 1990 pronounced examination  leakage  led  to  the cancellation of two  major papers, English and mathematics(Nigerian Economist Editorial,1993), 31 out of 160 examination centres were involved in cheating and malpractice while 45,438 had their results cancelled in the year 2002 (Salim, 2002). Another report by (Oyekanmi, 2005) showed that examination malpractice forced JAMB to cancel up to 95,985 results of students in that year. In 2012, JAMB was accused of not providing writing materials for the candidates in South-West, and also for bringing faulty biometric system that could not function during UME.  (Otti, 2011) observed that from 2007 to 2009, a total of 2,993,197 candidates sat for UME but only

427,777 candidates were successfully admitted. (Onyekakeyah, 2012) also reported on the mass  low  performance  in  this  year’s  UME.  The  report  showed  that,  out  of 1,503,931 candidates who sat for the examination, only three candidates scored 300. The rest of 27,266 were withheld due to involvement in large scale malpractice. 374,920 candidates, scored 170-

199; 601,151 candidates scored 200-269 while 901 candidates scored 270-299. All these suggested in a way that Nigeria’s higher education facilities have expanded beyond what one centralized examination body can efficiently cope with. By the beginning of 21st  century, JAMB’s criticism became a national issue as students who scored as high as 180 and above in JAMB examinations were not and are still not able to read and write properly. (Gbore, 2007) This perhaps resulted in the call by various stakeholders for JAMB to assume the role of a

clearing house, and ensure that students do not have multiple admissions, while the individual universities  take  up  the  conduct  of examination and  admit  the  students  of their  choice [Okogie, (2011), Onyechere, (2013)].

Perhaps, several subsequent criticisms of JAMB especially that of the former president of Nigeria,  Olusegun  Obasanjo,  who  accused  JAMB  of  high  corrupt  practice,  which  had affected the standard of Education in Nigeria. (Ebirin, 2006) led the federal government to adopt the post-UME screening as part of quality control measures in the admission process (Yola, 2006). Post-UME examination is a screening examination conducted by different Universities to all the candidates that have successfully met up with the required cut-off point in UME. Post-UME, was intended according to (Oyekanmi, 2012) to tackle the problems of fraudulent scores emanating from UME. (Amatareotubo, 2006) describes how the Federal Government of Nigeria introduced the policy of Post-UME screening by universities in 2005, through the former minister of education, Chinwe Obaji. This policy made it mandatory for

all tertiary institutions to screen candidates after their UME results and before giving admission. Candidates with a score of 200 and above would be shortlisted by JAMB and sent to their universities of choice for further screening using aptitude tests, oral interviews, or even another examination. Obaji asserts that some candidates scored 280 and above in UME but could not score 20 percent in the post-UME, indicating that those students must have cheated on their UME and could not pass the post-UME because there was no way to cheat.

This notwithstanding, the viewpoints expressed so far [Isuamara, (2005); Odogwu, (2005); Alaneme, (2007) and Ajaja, (2010)] were serious indication of doubtful criteria used for admission of students into Nigerian universities. In their views, post-UME screening leads to waste of money, an unfair tests, leads to indulgence of the university authorities in ethnicity and nepotism in the process of admission and the students placed at the mercy of corrupt admission officers of different institutions. The agitations for and against the introduction of post-UME by the students, parents, government and the vice chancellors, pro-chancellors, Academic Staff Union of Universities (ASUU) and other stake holders, created a lot of confusions and divisions to the extent that the legislative arm of government viewed it as an avenue for Universities to make money and suggested for the scrapping of PUME.(Sams

2010).This controversy according to (Badmus, 2008) came to its climax when the Upper and the Lower House of Assembly came into the matter. A motion was moved at the House of Representative,  by  Hon,  Sampson  Positive  from  Kogi State  arguing  that  the  test  is  an additional burden on the students and parents and therefore should be abolished. A report was formerly sent to the Federal Ministry of Education and National Universities Commission advising  them to  cancel the post-UME, basing  their argument  on the public outcry for extortions. Similarly, another motion was moved independently at the Upper Chamber of National Assembly by Senator Lokpobiri (Bayesa West  Senatorial District), directing its committee on Education under the chairmanship of Senator Uche Chukwumerije   to investigate all the Universities conducting post-UME test  with a view to cancelling the PUME. In response to the report and allegations, the chairman of the committee of vice chancellors  in  Nigeria,  Professor  Don  Baridan  argued  that,  while  JAMB  charges  four thousand six hundred naira for a two hours examination, many Universities charge between one thousand and two thousand naira  for days examination. (Badmus and Idoko, 2008) The former president of ASUU, Professor Ukachukwu Awuzie in his reaction, to the advice by the House of Representative, urged them not to take over the responsibility of the Senates

of the Universities, he noted that the admission of candidates all over the world  is the responsibility of the senate of each University. Professor Femi Bamiro, the Vice Chancellor of the University of Ibadan illustrated his University’s experience before the inception of post-UME, observing that out of 30 students admitted in the faculty of technology with high scores of 250 and above, 23 were asked to withdraw at the end of the first year because they could not cope with their academic works. It was also reported by (Mohammed, 2010) that before the introduction of the screening test, over 40% of the registered students in most Universities could hardly cope with academic works. This questions the high scores recorded by the students at JAMB.

Following the high level of corruption in the society, it becomes difficult to isolate any establishment  with corrupt  free  activities.  In support of that,  (Guardian editorial,  2011) reported  that, even with post-UME, admission processes are riddled with corruption, with admission lists credited to influential persons in the society in utter disregard of due process. Therefore, the Government and other stake holders in Education should look  for every possible means of dealing with these corrupt practices in the system that paved way for all the vices recorded in the Education system as well as other establishments. Furthermore there appeared to be the practice of some universities, particularly the private and state owned universities,  not  adhering  to  some  of  the  regulations  of  the  JAMB  (Ebongabsi,  2010) probably because these universities are not funded by the Federal Government. The claim appears  to  be  that  as  most  of the  State  universities are  funded  by  the  respective  state governments, they have the “right” to admit their state indigenes who are “rejected” in the Federal universities and in most cases without reference to the JAMB policy of admission. This implied that they have right over the state Universities. There is, therefore, the need to fine tune post-UME tests by the universities to reflect current realities and international good practices to achieve the quality control as was advocated.

The  evident  uncertainty of the  credibility  and  uniformity of admission criteria  into  the Nigerian universities, therefore, called for empirical investigation of the predictive validity of the current criteria for university admission into the various programmes across the universities in Nigeria. Validity according to Uzoagulu (2011.88) “means the appropriateness of instruments in measuring what is intended to measure”. For instance a wrist watch is a valid instrument if it serves its purpose of keeping time correctly. Prediction on the other

hand is a state that a particular event will occur in future in more certain terms than forecast

(Wikepedia). It is often based on information from the past and the current state (Obitko

1999). Thus, the predictive validity is the ability of an instrument to envisage future events. Example, a student that performs well in West African School Certificates Examination (WASSCE) result is expected, other things being equal; to replicate the same measure in other related examinations. If the student does, the WASSCE result is said to have a high degree of predictive validity. The predictive coefficient is obtained according to (Osuala,

1982)  by  computing,  the  correlation  coefficient  between  a  distributions  of  test  scores obtained earlier, against a distribution of scores on some later criteria measures. Example includes UME and common entrance scores (Ezeh, 2011) and other examination scores of students.

Furthermore, there  are  also  expected  problems  following  the  variations  in  the  method, structure, timing and many other attributes associated with the admission criteria under study. Such variations include: Non-uniformity of subjects being taken in JAMB and Post-UME across the universities. Some universities maintained consistently the four subjects as were taken in UME while some, example ESUT, suddenly changed from examining the candidates in  four  subjects to  two  subjects  including  English  and  Mathematics  irrespective  of the discipline; other differences include: question strength, structures and items across the universities  in  both  UME  and  Post-UME  and  within  Post-UME  across  the  universities ranging from 50 item questions in UME uniformly taken as against restricted 15 to 25 item questions   taken   in   Post-UME   depending   on   the   university;   standard   of   questions administered; coverage of UME syllabus ; time of preparation for the two examinations and finally, the unilateral way of conducting the Post-UME across the   universities. The implication is that no two universities have uniform way of administering this Post-UME. These and other problems envisaged during and   after examinations and during selection processes underscore the justifications of this study that aims at ascertaining the predictive validities of (i) UME, (ii) post-UME and the average of UME and Post-UME chemistry scores on the students’ first year result in Chemistry and the related courses as criteria.

Statement of the Problems

There has been continuous shift in the process of selection of candidates for admission into Nigerian universities. This shift has been necessitated by lapses associated with the selection process that tend to cast doubt on the validity of the process. This process ranges from decentralization of admission to each university, to the establishment of JAMB and recently the injection of post-UME screening in the process. The entrance examination by JAMB and post-UME were conducted and selection process done in almost all the school subjects, including chemistry in different universities with all the associated problems. These problems ranged from: uncoordinated system of admission observed in different universities that gave rise to multiple applications and admissions before the inception of JAMB, to the inefficiency and corrupt practices such as impersonation, manipulation of scores and other examination irregularities associated with JAMB and UME, which resulted to the admission of candidates who find it difficult to cope with their first year studies in the Universities, even with their high UME scores. This later gave rise to the introduction of Post-UME as a measure of quality  control in  the  system.  Moreover,  there  are  some  other  inefficiency expected  to associate with these examinations and procedure for selection. These include: variations in examination structures, item and content coverage, peculiarities of different universities, and selection by recommendation and not based on any laid down criteria as were seen with different  university  ownership.  All  these  tried  to  cast  doubt  on  the  validity  of  the examinations used in admission process. Besides, in considerations of the important nature of chemistry as a link and determinant of success in several other courses, its link with the industry,  all  life  process,  and  its  inter-relationship  with  other  subjects,  admission  of candidates in the following chemistry-based courses: Agricultural Economics, Biochemistry, Industrial Chemistry, Electrical Electronics and Medicine, through such a doubtful criteria as UME, post-UME and average scores of both UME and Post-UME chemistry, would likely result in the selection of candidates, who might not be able to meet up with the challenges in these chemistry-based courses in the public universities. This underscored the need for an empirical  investigation  of the  predictive  validities  of UME,  post-UME  and  average  of UME/post-UME  used  as  admission  criteria.  Thus  the  problem  of this  study put  in  an interrogative form is: what are the predictive validities of chemistry scores in (i) UME (ii) post-UME, and average of UME and Post-UME on students’ achievement in their first year university courses of study

Purpose of the Study

This study was designed to examine the UME, post-UME and average of UME and Post- UME scores in chemistry as predictors of students’ first year university achievements in the following chemistry-based faculties: Agriculture, Engineering, Biological sciences, Medical sciences and physical sciences in different universities.

Specifically, the study sought to determine:

i.          The  predictive  validity  of  the  UME  chemistry  scores  for  admission  into  some chemistry-based courses including: Agricultural Economics, Electrical Electronics, Biochemistry, Industrial chemistry and Medicine in the University of Nigeria, Nsukka and Enugu State University of Science and Technology.

ii.        The predictive validity of the post-UME chemistry scores for admission into some chemistry-based courses in the public Universities in Enugu State.

iii.       The predictive validity of the average UME and post-UME chemistry scores used for admission into some chemistry-based courses the public Universities in Enugu State.

iv.        Establish the extent of relationship between UME and post-UME chemistry scores used in admission into some chemistry-based courses public Universities in Enugu State.

Significance of the Study

In Nigeria just like every other country of the world, important decisions on job employments and placements; school admissions; course selection; direct entry placement of students to different levels in the higher education system are principally determined by the candidates’ previous qualifications. These range from Senior School Certificate Examination; University Matriculation Examination; Post-UME results and Degree results. These certificates if objectively acquired would be able to predict favorably or provide useful information about candidate’s acquired skills and subsequent abilities of such candidates. It is very doubtful to determine exactly whether these examinations and previous certificates, have correctly measured   the   students’   abilities   and   capabilities   as   were   claimed   assuming   these

qualifications  have  been  in  any  way  contaminated  with  variables  such  as  any  form of malpractice which might question the credibility, validity and reliability of these certificate. For such decisions to be effective, this present study that seeks to determine the predictive validities of UME, Post-UME chemistry scores for admission into chemistry-based courses holds a source of relief and is expected to provide useful information to the teachers, school administrators, employers of labour and JAMB, the empirical evidence needed for proper assessment of the candidates’ previous qualification, especially, presently where excellent grades are awarded to wrong persons or rejected candidates from Federal universities become the champions in state and privately owned universities.

To the students, it is expected that this study would pay a diagnostic function as well as a feedback to the students. A detailed understanding of concepts and skills involved in the problems students are trying to solve is important when trying to make predictions about students’ performance or assist students. Failure on a problem is more likely a consequence of lack of that concept or skills. The performance of students in different examinations taken at different levels of Education should be brought to their notice through: Quarterly or annual publications by different schools and examination bodies, such as JAMB, WAEC, NECO; Institutions internal and external examiner’s report; Chief examiner’s reports which should include, detailed information on the paper, candidate’s weakness and strengths; their general and individual performances; comments on each question and suggested recommendations and solutions. These would, therefore, provide the students with accurate knowledge of their current positions with respect to learning and understanding of chemistry concepts; the extent of mastery of expected knowledge and their readiness to move on smoothly. This would get them fully involved and prepared for more effective learning strategies that would enhance their understanding of this concept and maximize achievement. Consequently, the students would be fully prepared to take up their various future responsibilities as Engineers, Doctors, Pharmacists and Scientists as would be demanded by their various courses of the study. Finally, the candidate’s eligibility for admission into the university can be justified after the study.

Accordingly, this feedback is also very important to the parents and guardians. It would help them to know how well and how far their children have acquired the required knowledge and

skills from the school. This study would expose the weakness and strength of the students’ previous results and possible deficiencies in the university entrance examinations and admission process which might lead to wrong selection of candidates for the right courses. The students’ result, chief and external examiners’ reports should be made available to the parents and other stakeholders through the internet; public interactive programs on media; parents’ forum organized in schools and conferences. With these, the teachers would be fully informed and concerned about the prevailing situation of their children’s educational achievement. The qualities of the entrance examinations and, therefore, become interested and  involved  in a concerted effort  made towards improving or maintaining a particular standard on their children’s education.

Teachers and school administrators from both secondary and tertiary educational institutions might also benefit from the findings of this study. Teachers are important figures and are deeply involved in every aspect of educational development of the individuals. They are either directly or indirectly involved in almost all educational activities, ranging from curriculum development and implementation, test development and administration, teaching, assessing  and  placement  of  students,  supervision  and  invigilation  of  both  internal  and external examinations, marking and grading of students examinations and also in carrying out researches in  different  problem areas  in order to  suggest  possible solutions to  different educational challenges. Concretely predicting students performance as that of the present study is a task where teachers, administrators will like to find out how the students learn (specifically or generally); how, slowly or quickly they adapt to new situations; how possible it  is to deduce the knowledge requirement to  solve the problems directly from students performance data and finally the extent of performance of the task whether correctly or with some levels of certainty. However, teachers want feedback on students’ performance much more often than on yearly basis so as to evaluate the outcome of both the activities of the teachers and the students. The issues involved in this study such as the students chemistry scores and university entrance examinations: UME and Post-UME, and their first year results, in different other courses of interest will provide students performance data which will be of relevance to teachers as well as school administrators. Therefore, teachers  in secondary schools should  be  aware  of the  findings  from this  study through workshops, seminars, interactive sections with the inspectors on external evaluation of schools to schools who should have been provided with the summary of this type of study from the research and

statistical  section  of the  ministry.  This  is  important  because  the  products of university education are mostly from secondary schools. Candidates are exhibiting their acquired knowledge through such entrance examinations as well as their preparedness for the tasks ahead.

The tertiary institutions management team has to find a way of making the findings of the study available to  related  faculties  and departments  for discussion in their  management meetings. It should be made available to the accreditation teams properly constituted to include representatives from professional and regulatory bodies such as Science Teachers Association of Nigeria (STAN), Chemical Society of Nigeria (CSN), and National University Commission (NUC), National Board for Technical Education (NBTE) and others. During their visit, there should be a forum with the lecturers and management staff where such research works would be exhaustively discussed. This would help the school management board; lecturers and teachers from these departments to be prepared to help the students, through some special educational support programmes as tutorials, remedial studies, special counseling activities as guidance on study skills and note-taking and other basic academic skills. It would also be easier for teachers to make data-driven changes in the classroom if such information about the students’ previous learning outcome  is  made available. This would eventually help to draw down the teaching of chemical skills and concept to the students’ zone of proximate development so as to maximize achievement.

To education managers/policy makers, this study hoped to assist them to make pro-active; knowledge driven decision on the formulation of appropriate policy on the conduct of public examinations  and  also  on  the  adoption  of  admission  policy.  The  strongest  or  weakest predictor variable of success which was ascertained in this study would serve as a guide to rational decision geared towards achieving relevance in chemistry teaching and learning. The quality and credibility of these criteria (UME and Post-UME) would also be ascertained. This would lead to rational decision on how best to improve on each criterion, either by standardizing the PUME in all the universities or by setting a committee to look into the test and conduct of these examinations in different universities, so as to come out with adequate policy about the uniformity of these examinations.

To curriculum planners, if it is established that there is a mismatch between the expectations expressed in the content and the cognitive skills of the students, the planners would be informed of the need to build in remedial measures into the curriculum, plan for review of the current JAMB Syllabus and the need to produce a standard syllabus for PUME that will cut across the whole universities for uniformity purposes. A thorough understanding of which criterion is hard for students can lead to a better categorization of test  items and better guidance for teaching.

To external examination bodies, example, JAMB, poor achievements of science students in different educational levels in the past decades have been a source of concern and enough to trigger worry in examination bodies and, therefore, the urgent move to seek for immediate solutions.  For  years  now,  JAMB’s  system  of  assessment  has  been  with  the  use  of standardized tests, mainly multiple choice items, which seem not to encourage high thinking skills. The implication is that the examination has not succeeded in measuring the students’ ability to formulate problems and carry out investigations. This study would provide them with empirical evidence and information about the predictive strength of UME and post- UME with other examinations. The criterion with the strongest predictor of academic success would also be determined. This might be a function of performance, conduct of examination, coverage of scheme; validation or reliability of test, scope of the test or method of instruction. For instance, if the scheme of work is not covered and the students are tested in those areas or if the test does not represent the objective or if the conduct of examination, is subjected to malpractice, the implication is that the test is not efficient in measuring what it is supposed to measure. Thus, the lower the predictive quality, the more the department in the university and JAMB become more curious about what information makes the current assessment work. If the predictor quality is high, their interest would be directed towards: using the predictor as support for the current process or identifying success factors specific to the chemistry education programme or modifying the assessment quality and methods resulting to a better prediction. Moreover, if strong predictors for academic success can be found, it will also be used to gain understanding of success and risk factors regarding the curriculum. Awareness of these  factors by teachers,  education personnel and  management  would  help to  select appropriate measures to support the risk group and eventually resulting to enhanced performance. JAMB will, therefore, be alerted on its onerous responsibilities to tertiary

institutions in Nigeria and the larger society and the need to conduct its examination with utmost seriousness and commitment.

Furthermore, this study would serve as a working document to all these bodies responsible for quality control measure in school, such as the National University Commission (NUC), Federal and State Inspectorate Services; Science Teachers Association of Nigeria (STAN) and  other  science  related  professional  bodies.  Detailed  information  about  the  status  of students in different external examination has to be made available to them before hand. This would guide their various discussions with the students, teachers and the management about the students’ performances; their true positions; the predictive value of these examinations and possible effect on future endeavors. This could be carried out during inspections in secondary schools or accreditation visits to tertiary institutions. At professional conferences; workshop; seminar, the summary of a study like this, should be made available and discussed with the participants which should include, the parents, teachers and other stake holders for them to be aware of the status of education and suggests a practical measures in order to increase quality   performance in schools. This information may also be used in rating or ranking of the students in chemistry based courses across the universities by subject basis. Finally this study will serve as a source of information and guide to other researchers who plan to carry out   related studies in other disciplines, schools and states.

Theoretically this work is anchored on a classical test theory. This deals with prediction of outcomes of psychological testing such as the difficulty of items or the ability of test-takers. It is aimed at good understanding and improving the reliability of psychological tests, it also assumes that each person has true score that is obtained if there is no error in measurement. Classical test theory is used to say something about the quality of test scores. A lot of psychometric tests are carried out often and in different places and for different purposes such as tests and examinations done at schools and universities including UME and post-UME or recruitments and selection tests done when applying for a job. This theory tries to explain every variable surrounding the variety of constructs that a psychometric tests measure. This includes psychological variables that are not directly observable. Examples include: intelligence, personality, motivation etcetera. But how can one know whether a test is a good test, measures a construct accurately or actually measures what it claims to measure, what about influences from outside the testing situation, the effect they have on the outcome of a

test? For instance, if a group of candidates given a test in a small room surrounded by a lot of noise is compared with another group who completed the same test in a large, noise-free room. Will these two groups have comparable scores or could the testing situation have affected  the  scores  or  what  they obtained.  It  is,  therefore,  possible to  think  of several scenarios where a test  ends up measuring differently from what  it  had aimed to. Thus, classical test theory deals with the effect of unsystematic and systematic influences on the observed test results. The unsystematic influence includes any distraction from outside the testing situation; physical well being of the candidate. Sometimes these influences have a positive effect on the test result; other times they have a negative influence. In other words they cause a brand range of errors around the true scores. Systematic influence includes; the characteristics of the test  of testing  situation that  affects all  measurements equally.  For example, if there is a mistake in any test item presented to all the candidates taking a test, it would influence all the candidates in the same way. Following from the foregoing, the result of this study that tends to determine the predictive values of UME and post-UME chemistry scores for admission into chemistry based courses in different universities would be justified. The performances of these candidates that took the same chemistry questions in UME may differ from the performances of the same candidates that took different chemistry questions differently  in  different  universities  for  post-UME  examinations.  Therefore,  from  the predictive quality of this psychometric test, the need to study the predictive validities of these entrance examinations for admission into Nigeria universities as well as the relationship between the entrances examinations used as determinant of admission criteria for selection into chemistry-based courses in different universities was justified.

Furthermore, the theory of multiple regression is also applied and also very useful in order to explain the relationship between a dependent variable (university achievement and one or more independent variables (UME, Post-UME and average UME and Post-UME). It involves generally,  two  applications:  prediction  and  explanation.  That  is  being  able  to  make  a projection concerning an outcome for a particular candidate or attempting to understand a phenomenon by examining the variable correlates on a group level. This would be of great importance to their work because it would help in a prediction equation and also to create the best equation so that for instance, guidance counselors, school administrators, teacher, employers of labour and other stake holders could predict future achievement scores for their

students and wards and hopefully intervene in those students identified as at risk for better performance or to select students into programs based on their projected scores.

Scope of the Study

This study was delimited to the determination of the predictive validities of (i) UME, (ii) Post-UME  and  average  UME/Post-UME  Chemistry  scores  of  students,  admitted   in

2007/2008 and 2008/2009 sessions, on their first year scores in Chemistry-based courses in public universities in Enugu State. There are two public Universities in Enugu State: one federal and one state, including, University of Nigeria, Nsukka and Enugu State University of Science and Technology. Since the work cannot understudy all the chemistry related programmes, in all the faculties in which chemistry is a prerequisite, one programme each from these faculties, from the two public Universities in Enugu State, were selected for this study as follows: Agriculture (Agricultural/Economics); Biological sciences (Biochemistry); Engineering (Electrical-Electronics); Physical sciences (Pure and Applied chemistry) and Medical Sciences (Medicine and Surgery).

The selection of one course each from the above chemistry-based programmes was guided as follows: Chemistry must be one of the ordinary level entry requirement as well as the UME and Post-UME subjects and the courses selected must be similar in both universities for both uniformity and comparative purposes.

Research Questions

The study was guided by the following research questions:

i.          What are the predictive validity indices of UME scores in chemistry for each of the following chemistry-based courses  in public  universities:  Agricultural-Economics, Biochemistry, Electrical-Electronics, Pure and Industrial chemistry, and Medicine?

ii.        What are the predictive validity indices of post-UME chemistry scores for each of the chemistry-based courses in public universities?

iii.       What are the predictive validity indices of average UME and Post-UME scores in chemistry for each of the chemistry-based courses in the public universities?

iv.        To what extent do the students’ UME scores in Chemistry predict their post-UME

scores in Chemistry in various chemistry-based courses?

Hypotheses

The following null hypotheses were tested at 5% level of significance.

Ho1:  Students’ UME  mean scores  in chemistry do  not  significantly predict  their  mean achievement scores in each of the chemistry-based courses in the public universities: Agricultural Economics, Biochemistry, Electrical Electronics, Pure and Industrial Chemistry, and Medicine.

Ho2:  Students’ post-UME mean scores in chemistry do not significantly predict their mean achievement scores in first year chemistry-based courses in public universities.

Ho3:     The students  mean UME  and Post-UME scores in chemistry do  not  significantly predict their mean achievement scores in first year chemistry-based courses in public universities.

Ho4:  Students’ UME mean scores in chemistry do not significantly predict their  mean post- UME score in chemistry in various chemistry-based courses in public universities.

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