THE IMPACT OF INFECTIOUS EPIDEMIC ON SOCIAL GATHERING A CASE STUDY OF CORONAVIRUS DISEASE

Abstract

This study was on the impact of infectious epidemic on social gathering. A case study of coronaviorus. Two objectives were raised which included; To ascertain the effect of COVID19 on social gathering and to ascertain the risk of factors of gathering during COVID19. A total of 77 responses were received and validated from the enrolled participants where all respondents were drawn from Offa, Kwara state. Hypothesis was tested using Chi-Square statistical tool (SPSS).

 Chapter one

Introduction

1.1Background of the study

In addition to large gatherings of people, small social gatherings are thought to be an important source of SARSCoV-2 transmission. Although several evaluations of state policies that limit social gatherings limitations on gathering size, curfews, or shelter-in-place orders have found that these policies are associated with reduced growth in COVID-19 cases, it is empirically challenging to disentangle the potential consequences of any specific policy associated with COVID-19 cases given the many confounding factors at local, regional, and state levels. Although it is well known that SARS-CoV-2 spreads primarily through person-to-person contact, estimating the risk entailed with small gatherings and, therefore, the risk reduction associated with not gathering is also empirically challenging given that large-scale data are required on when individuals gather and whether those who gather are more likely to develop COVID-19. ( Hobbs CV, Martin LM, Kim SS, et al; 2020). Even with such data, those who are more likely to gather may be at higher risk for COVID-19 for unobserved but associated reasons, a problem of confounding. We analyzed the potential increased risk of COVID-19 around small social gatherings by studying changes in COVID-19 rates after important life events (Nishi A, Dewey G, Endo A, et al, 2020)

Mass gathering events (MGEs) are important risk factors of severe acute respiratory coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmissions, which causes coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. According to the World Health Organization “Mass gatherings are events characterized by the concentration of people at a specific location for a specific purpose over a set period of time that have the potential to strain the planning and response resources of the host country or community”. MGEs cover different types of event and contexts such as public and private celebrations, festivals, religious events and pilgrimages, sporting and touristic events, and political meetings. The crucial role of MGEs in the global propagation of the disease has been evidenced in several countries, including China , Iran, Malaysia and Malawi. Significant international efforts have been made to implement specific measures, risk assessment and surveillance, and event cancellations in order to prevent the spread of SARS-CoV-2 from MGEs (Barrios JM, Benmelech 2020)

The propagation of SARS-CoV-3 in these MGEs was measured with the basic reproductive number (Ro), which reflects the efficiency of transmission of the disease, and “is defined as the expected number of secondary cases produced by a single (typical) infection in a completely susceptible population(Leventhal AM, 2021)

MGEs imply the gathering of people in restricted spaces, either indoor or outdoor, over a prolonged period of time, where food and/or drink are generally consumed, usually in close proximity to others, and involving the movement of populations. The conditions of MGEs have been associated with the spread of SARS-CoV-2, but few MGE studies have published quantification and adjustment for potential risk factors. In addition, several epidemiologic biases such as selection and misclassification have been observed in some studies of SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks, considering the novelty of the disease and the emergency situation (. Dave D, McNichols D, Sabia JJ, 2020)

Statement of the problem

Nigeria has had a high incidence of COVID-19, with a large number of COVID-19 outbreaks occurring in households, nursing homes, hospitals, workplaces and leisure facilities. We studied a MGE COVID-19 outbreak that took place in the first wave of the pandemic. During March and April 2020 in Nigeria. Between February and the first days of March 2020, before the COVID-19 outbreak in Nigeria, several MGEs took place in connection with the traditional Falles festival, which is held annually in some part of Nigeria. Using a population-based retrospective cohort study, we aimed to estimate the association of the incidence of COVID-19 disease with the MGEs in Nigeria, and quantify potential risk factors of its occurrence.

Objective of the study

The objectives of the study are;

1. To ascertain the effect of COVID19 on social gathering
2. To ascertain the risk of factors of gathering during COVID19

Research hypotheses

The following research hypotheses will be formulated;

H0: there is no effect of COVID19 on social gathering

H1: there is effect of COVID19 on social gathering

H0: there are no risk of factors of gathering during COVID19

H2: there risk of factors of gathering during COVID19

Significance of the study

The study will be very significant to students, lecturer and the general public. the study will give a clear insight on the impact of infectious epidemic on social gathering. A case study of Coronavirus disease. The study will also serve as a reference to other researcher that will embark on the related topic

Scope and limitation of the study

The scope of the study covers the impact of infectious epidemic on social gathering. A case study of Coronavirus

The researcher encounters some constraints which limit the scope of the study namely:

The research material available to the researcher is insufficient, thereby limiting the study

The time frame allocated to the study does not enhance wider coverage as the researcher has to combine other academic activities and examinations with the study.

Insufficient fund tends to impede the efficiency of the researcher in sourcing for the relevant materials, literature or information and in the process of data collection (internet, questionnaire and interview).

Definition of terms

Coronavirus: Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is an infectious disease caused by a newly discovered coronavirus

Social gathering is defined as interactions among a diversity of individuals of all abilities in small, medium and large groups for social and community purposes. Street life used to be an integral part of the social life of people

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