DETERMINANTS OF FERTILITY RATE AMONG WOMEN AND THE IMPLICATIONS FOR POPULATION GROWTH A COMPARATIVE STUDY OF NIGERIA AND GHANA

Abstract

The paper examines the determinants of fertility in Nigeria and Ghana using the  Ordinary Least  square econometric model. The determinants of fertility that are subjected to empirical scrutiny   include   income   of  household,   rural-urban   concentration   of   population,   age composition of women in the total population, education or literacy rate among women, and prevalence use of contraceptives among women in childbearing age. The result shows that the use  of  contraceptives,  income,  education  attainment  among  Ghana  women  and  rate  of urbanization  are  significant  determinants  of  fertility  in  Ghana;  while  age  composition, income, education attainment and rate of urbanization are determinants of fertility in Nigeria. The paper also revealed that age composition and  use of contraceptives are not associated with fertility in Ghana and Nigeria,  respectively.  Generally, the determinants of fertility in both countries  are mixed.  In  Ghana,  high fertility is associated  with  high income,  while education attainment and composition of female population is associated with high fertility in Nigeria. On the other hand, education attainment, prevalence use of contraceptives, and rate of urbanization are responsible for decline in fertility in Ghana; while rate of urbanization and income are responsible for decline in fertility in Nigeria. Furthermore, the poor in Nigeria are more likely to have more children unlike in Ghana where affluence is associated with high fertility. On the strength of the findings, the study recommended  that there is the need  to increase the momentum in the sensitization of women on the use of family planning as means controlling fertility in Nigeria. Also, more sensitization about birth control should be focused and intensified in the rural area to reduce the fertility rate.

Chapter One

Introduction

1.1    Background to the Study

There are more than 7 billion people on the planet earth, at the same time there is increasing decline in welfare and access to basic food. Report by Food and Agriculture  Organization (FAO) in 2012 shows that of the 7 billion people on mother earth, about 870 million of them lacks access to food. In spite of the fact that the annual population growth rate has declined to

1.2 percent per year, world population grows at a worrisome level of by about 83  million annually. While the world population continues to grow, poverty has emerged  as a serious global  issue,  particularly  because  the  most  rapid  population  growth  is  occurring  in  the world’s poorest countries and, within many countries, in the poorest states and provinces.

The role of fertility as a factor in population growth is widely recognized and over the last decade or two, world-wide fertility surveys have confirmed substantial decline of births since the  demographic  transition  in the  western  world  and,  in recent  years,  many developing countries of Asia and Latin America. At the global level, the worlds’ fertility rate stands at

2.5  percent  and  4.7  percent  for  Africa,  while  Nigeria  5.7  percent  (World  Development

Indicator, 2011).

Although levels of fertility in most sub-Saharan Africa have not shown significant trends in the past few decades, substantial fertility differentials exist between countries and between regions  and  socioeconomic  groups  within  countries.  This  paper  examines  the  proximate determinants  of  fertility  that  are  responsible  for  these  variations  in  fertility.  Particular attention is given to the biological and behavioral  factors, such as postpartum  abstinence, prolonged breastfeeding, and pathological sterility, which are crucial determinants of fertility in sub-Saharan Africa. Using a simple analytic model, the relative fertility-inhibiting effects of the proximate determinants are quantified, and from this analysis an assessment is made of prospects  for future  trends  in  fertility.  It is concluded  that  rapid  declines  in fertility are unlikely to occur in the near future, partly because desired family size is very high and partly because upward pressure on fertility levels will result from the erosion of traditional child-

spacing practices of postpartum abstinence and prolonged breastfeeding or from declines in levels of pathological sterility in response to public health measures.

Nigeria, with a population of about 162 million and a percentage rate of natural increase of

2.5% in 2011,  is Africa’s  population  giant  and  the seventh  largest  country in the  world according to world population data sheet, (2011). Consequent upon the  recognition of the negative   effects  of  rapid   population   growth,   the  government   promulgated   the  1988

Population Policy of Nigeria and many other reforms to manage the situation diplomatically

(Federal Republic of Nigeria 1988).

One major component of the policy document is the specification of a set of targets, which demonstrates a strong interest of the government to fundamentally change the reproductive behaviour  of Nigerians.  In particular,  the targets of the policy document  include: for the protection of the health of mother and child, to reduce the proportion of women who get married before the age of 18 years by 50 per cent by 1995 and by 80 per cent by the year

2000; to reduce the proportion of women bearing more than four children by 50 per cent by

1995 and by 80 per cent by the year 2000; To extend the coverage of family planning service to 50 per cent of women of childbearing age by 1995 and 80 per cent by year  2000; To reduce the number of children a woman is likely to have during her lifetime, now over 6, to 4 per woman by year 2000 and reduce the present rate of population growth from about 3.3 per cent per year to 2.5 per cent by 1995 and 2.0 per cent by the year 2000 (Federal Republic of Nigeria 1988: 13- 14).

On the other hand, Ghana has one of the fastest growing populations in the world despite the desire of many Ghanaian women and men for better spaced, smaller families, and this high growth rate has profound  implications  for development and quality of life in  Ghana. The publication  titled  ‘State  of  Ghana  Population   Report  2003:   Population,   Poverty  and Development’ made a compelling case regarding the need to re-focus the nation’s energies on managing  its  human  development  efforts  – its most  important  resource.  The Minister  of Finance and Economic Planning at the time, Hon. Yaw Osafo Marfo, in the foreword to the document notes, that managing the country’s population represents an invaluable contribution to the national development planning process and to the Ghana Poverty Reduction Strategy. The document under reference  provided a comprehensive review of the interplay between

selected strategic development sectors such as education, health, environment, gender on the one hand, and population and poverty on the other.

Addressing  population   growth  is  an  important   matter  in  Ghana’s   quest  to   develop programmes that promote growth and reduce poverty. In view of this  compelling case, an analysis was conducted  using the Resource  for the Awareness  of  Population  Impacts  on Development (RAPID) model to help inform the nation’s effort at achieving the Millennium Development  Goals  (MDGs).  The  analysis  focused  on  “wanted”  fertility  versus  actual fertility, indicators of an unmet demand for family planning, and the high continuing rates of maternal and infant mortality and morbidity to which unintended pregnancies contribute. The analysis also relies on information from the 2000 Population Census and other sources, and projects two population growth scenarios (a high fertility using total fertility rate (TFR) of 3.6 and a low TFR of 3.0 children per woman by 2015) while looking at the sectoral implications for achieving the MDGs in education, job creation, health and agriculture, urbanization and for achieving the family planning goals as contained in the revised population policy. The conclusion in each case is that the growth and poverty reduction strategy goals may not be achieved if efforts are not made to reduce the high unmet need for family planning and slow down the country’s  rapid rate of population growth which is being fueled  by  unintended fertility.

In Nigeria, evidence from the past demographic surveys has shown that the TFR has been declining. It declined from 6.3 in 1981/82 to 5.9 in 1991. This later fell to 5.4 and 5.2 in 1994 and  1999  (National  Population  Commission,  1998  and 2000).  The data  suggest  that,  on average, a Nigerian woman has one child less in 1999 than she would have had in 1981/82. The rate of decline is better appreciated in percentage changes. For instance, between 1981 and 1991, the TFR declined by 6.3 percent, which further fell by 11.9 percent between 1991 and 1999. Thus within two  decades,  fertility rate in  the country fell by 17.5 percent.  A reflection of this development is the declining trend in the annual population growth from 3.0 percent during 1980-1990 to 2.8 percent between 1990 and 1999 (World Bank, 2001a: 279). However  more  recent  data  shows  that  Nigeria’s  total  fertility rate  stands  at  5.7  (World Population Data Sheet, 2011)

Fertility trend by region, however, brings out some elements of peculiarity. Between 1990 and  1999,  fertility  rate  rose  from  5.9  in  1990  to  6.8  in  1999  in  the  northeast  region,

representing 0.9 percentage point increase (i.e., a percentage change of 15.3). The trends in other regions follow the national pattern, a remarkable decline of 2.6 percentage points- 36.6 percentage  change  was  recorded  in central  part  of  the  country.  While  the  trends  in the southeast and southwest are lower than the national average that of the northwest is higher. Observers  of the  country’s  fertility  trend  have,  however,  shown  that  given  the  level  of contraceptive use in the central part of the country the recorded sharp decline may be due to serious under-reporting. Current statistics show that fertility rate is very high in Nigeria, as Nigeria population is expected  to increase from 162 million in 2011 to 433 million in 2050. However the bone of contention is not that the population is high or low, but that the high population should reconcile with the available resources.

It is however based on the above that this study is aimed at evaluating the core determinants of fertility rates among women and its implications on population growth with reflections on Nigeria and Ghana

1.2     Statement of Problem

Nigeria and Ghana are two leading West African States in the Sub-Saharan Africa  whose development potentials and its extended spillover effects will have a far-reaching impact on the sub-continent of West Africa.

The rapid growth of population in these countries is an issue of immense concern particularly Nigeria, given the scarce resources of society (Ushie, 2009). Significant improvement in the standard of living in Africa would remain a mirage unless population growth is slowed. “On the current trends, Africa will increasingly be unable to feed its children and find jobs for its school leavers” (World Bank, 1989). In spite of the warning, fertility continues to grow and at the same time, the level of mortality decreases significantly in response to the advances in medicine  and  nutritional  intake.  Consequently,  the  quality of the population  in terms  of education,  jobs,  medical  provision  and  ratio  of  policemen  to  citizens,  among  others,  is affected. Even in the light of this grim situation, the fertility rate in Nigeria generally remains above six children per woman; the trend is even higher among rural women. The explanation for such differential fertility in terms of spatial consideration  has presented a challenge of enormous dimension (Ushie, 2009).

Indeed, one would expect that government’s population policy would address the population problem squarely, but the situation is far more than just the formulation of policies (Obono,

2003). Robust and rigorous regime of research has to be conducted to first of all provide information  on  the  exact  cause  and  effect  relationship,  or  association  of  variables  with fertility.

Many multivariate studies have been conducted to examine the causal factors linked  with fertility.  However,  these  studies  have  proved  inadequate,  and  in  many  cases,  the  key problematic is the issue of methodology, that is, of data collection. Most researchers adopt necessary  but  not  sufficient  data  which  for  obvious  political  and  other  reasons  may be unreliable. Thus, findings from such studies do reflect the data, which are usually unreliable. On the other  hand;  although  studies  have  revealed  some  of the factors  behind  Ghana’s fertility rate increase, much effort is still needed to explain the contribution to the transition of social factors such as ethnicity, contraception practices, education, etc. Most of the studies have used micro-level data (mainly case study household surveys), and have therefore been unable to unravel in fine details the reasons at the macro level. This research is thus intended to unravel the macro  determinants  of fertility rate in the economy within a comparative framework with Nigeria.

In the course of this research, the following research questions will be addressed:

1)  What factors account for relative changes in fertility rate among women in Nigeria and Ghana?

2)  What is the relative trend in fertility among women in Nigeria and Ghana?

3)  What is the implication of fertility rate on population growth of Nigeria and Ghana?

1.3 Objectives of Study

Generally,  the research ascertains the determinants  of fertility rate among women and  its implications for population growth within a comparative framework of Nigeria and Ghana. Specifically, this study aims at actualizing the following objectives:

1)  To identify the determinants of fertility rates among women in Nigeria and Ghana.

2)  To examine the trend in fertility rate in Nigeria and Ghana.

3)  To identify the  implications  of fertility rate on population  growth of Nigeria  and

Ghana.

1.4 Significance of the study

The importance of carrying out a research of this kind cannot be overemphasized given to the fact that the output of the research will be valuable for a number of reasons:

Firstly, this research will be of great relevance to the government of Nigeria and Ghana, as its outcome will reveal the core determinants of fertility among women and facilitate appropriate policies to that respect.

Secondly, subsequent researchers carrying out an investigation in similar studies will find this research highly relevant.

Thirdly, this study will be an addition to the stock of knowledge and hence forms a body of thought for the consumption of other scholars.

Furthermore, it will also be an indicator of the extent to which available reproductive health programs and services in the country have assisted couples and individuals to achieve their fertility preferences.

These should assist the government as well as reproductive health programmers in designing appropriate and/or fortifying existing programmes with the aim of  improving the level at which people achieve their fertility preferences  and towards the  country achieving the set targets.

Finally, the National Population Commission (NPC) of both countries will find this research significant  as it will out rightly reveal the  core determinants  of fertility and  thus aid  in population reduction or enhancement strategies.

1.5 Scope of the study

The area of coverage for this analysis is thus focused on investigating the determinants of fertility  rates  among  women,  and  implications  on population  growth  with  reflections  on Nigeria and Ghana using African Development Indicators (ADI) data spanning 1960-to-2010 which was obtained from the World Bank data portal.

1.6 Structure of the Study This section  looks at the structure of the study.  The study is divided  into  five  chapters. Chapter one deals with the introduction to the study which encompasses the background of to the study; the statement of the problem, the research questions, the hypotheses that guided the study;  the  significance  of  the  study  as  well  as  the  structure  of  the  study.  Immediately following the chapter one is the literature review which is the chapter two. This chapter has four subsections-the conceptual framework; the theoretical literature; the empirical literature and the limitations of previous studies. Chapter three deals with the research methodology. This chapter x-ray the method adopted in carrying out the research such as the model for the study, data source. Chapter deals with presentation of the results and findings as well as the discussion of the findings. The last chapter summarizes the study; draw conclusion based on the study as well as policy recommendation of the study.

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